Holiday packages to the Canary Islands are forecast to become 9% more expensive this summer due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to leading tourism alliance Excelcan.
The warning was issued as tourism leaders presented their latest industry report for the first quarter of 2026, outlining concerns over rising operational costs, weaker demand and ongoing staffing shortages across the islands.
According to Excelcan, which represents many of the Canary Islands’ largest tourism companies, the biggest immediate concern is the sharp rise in jet fuel prices caused by instability in the Middle East.
Vice-president José Carlos Francisco said the cost of kerosene used by airlines has already doubled, significantly increasing transport costs for flights to destinations such as the Canaries. Since flights account for around 27% of the total price of a typical holiday package, tour operators estimate package prices may need to rise between 7.5% and 9% from June onwards.
Despite the increase, Excelcan believes the tourism industry should still be able to absorb much of the added cost by reducing profit margins across airlines, tour operators and hotels.
However, business leaders warned that a more serious scenario would involve fuel shortages affecting major European airports, particularly in countries such as Germany and the UK, which are key tourism markets for the Canary Islands.
Francisco explained that while Spain currently produces more kerosene than it consumes, countries like Germany and Britain rely more heavily on imports. Any disruption affecting airports such as Frankfurt or Birmingham could create major problems for Canary Islands tourism.
Even so, the alliance still expects 2026 to remain a relatively strong year for tourism, although visitor numbers, which are currently on target to exceed last year’s figures, may actually fall slightly compared with 2025.
The report shows that during the first quarter of 2026, tourist arrivals increased by just over 2%, while spending by visitors rose by more than 8%. However, overnight stays and hotel occupancy levels saw a small drop.
The tourism sector also continues to struggle with staff shortages, with employers reporting difficulties finding chefs, maintenance workers, commercial staff and hospitality employees despite record-low unemployment levels in the Canary Islands.
Excelcan president Santiago de Armas said the lack of affordable housing and soaring rental prices remain one of the biggest obstacles to attracting and retaining workers across the sector.
